The February to April 2019 climate outlook, indicates a drier than median three months is likely for most of Western Australia, western parts of the Northern Territory and South Australia, and much of eastern mainland Australia. The rest of the country shows no strong push towards a wetter or drier than a median season.
Warmer than median days and nights are likely for almost all of Australia for February to April. For daytime temperatures, the chances of being warmer than the median are very high, greater than 80% for most of the country.
Tropical Pacific waters are neutral, but near El Niño levels. The atmospheric component of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation has not responded to the warmer waters yet, meaning an El Niño event has not become established.
This outlook is showing little signal from any of the typical Australian climate drivers, with most in a neutral phase. Therefore, local effects, such as the ocean temperatures around Australia, are likely to influence the outlook.
In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
Weekly Sea Surface Temperatures
February to April is likely to be drier than the median for most of Western Australia, western parts of the Northern Territory and South Australia, eastern parts of Queensland and New South Wales, and most of Victoria.
For the remainder of the country, there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months, i.e., no strong tendency towards a wetter or drier than a median season ahead.
A tilt of the odds toward below-normal precipitation is forecast for the Philippines, part of Indonesia, variable parts of northern South America, southern Africa and parts of Australia for all four forecast seasons (Feb-Apr through May-Jul), but not for May-Jul for Australia.