Sydney to HObart Yacht Race, outlook from 25-12-2018

The 2018 Rolex  Sydney to Hobart start on the 26th December 2018 at 1pm ADST from Sydney harbor.

 

Here is my thought on what may happen as it currently stands.

at 1pm Race start, there is light winds along the coastline, however inland there are stronger winds also.

 

The complex High-pressure system has now broken into 2 separate systems, 1 is  1020 hPa, the 2nd is a 1019 hPa , Both visible on the images below.

Thus producing a light wind up to 20 knots at the start of the race, but further, out to sea, it picks up to 50 knots under the Center of the High.

But as the day goes on  the wind along the coastline increases to  30 knots south to the VIC/ NSW border

 

The images below show the waves until 11 pm Wednesday.

 

The forecasted wave height has no decreased for the start of the race to just 2.5 m and less, but again this may yet change again.

 

if the waves pick up behind the fleet near the start of the race to 2.5 m  at 6 second  period under the high pressure of 1020 hPa

 

By 7pm Picture, it is seeing that some of the waves are now popping up into the onshore area, of the race, so this could help or hinder the fleet after 7 pm at night, and continue until 11 pm at night.

 

on the 7 pm wave map, you also have a low-pressure system over Tasmania, now this could add some element of suction, into the southern ocean.

 

 

 

Stephen –

QSCHW TEAM AUSTRALIA

Dartfish Australia Support .

credit windy.com