Thunderstorm and Heatwave Outlook

G'day everyone

Thunderstorms

While thunderstorms are still possible at this stage. A lot of it is still dependent on how fast the weak southerly change moves through.  Brisbane and the Gold Coast may see some thunderstorms at this stage however activity is more likely from the Sunshine Coast north the to Rockhampton.

At rhw moment we have a surface trough which extends from the far north of the state to the central coast, and will drift only slowly to the west over the next few days. The trough separates a relatively moist and unstable air mass to its east from a much drier and hot airmass to the west. Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the moist air to the east of the trough, while High to Very high fire dangers will persist over much the state affected by the drier airmass. Increasing temperatures and winds in the dry air over the southeast inland will lead to the return of severe fire dangers.

On Saturday the dry airmass will remain in place across much of Queensland, though some moisture will spread westwards across the north of the state bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Over the south, the trough will remain just inland from the Wide Bay coast, and another trough will move northwards into far southeastern Queensland, and these features may lead to isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in this area as well. Showers and thunderstorms are also likely to continue over western Cape York Peninsula. Daytime temperatures are likely to be higher than average across much of the state, with hot conditions extending in a band from the northwest to the southeast. Severe fire dangers are likely to continue in southeast Queensland.

Heatwave Conditions

Friday the dry airmass will remain in place across much of the state, though moisture will extend a little further inland as a surface trough shifts slowly westwards. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moister air mass over northern Queensland and eastern districts north of about Hervey Bay. Daytime temperatures are likely to be higher than average across the state, and well above average with hot conditions and severe fire dangers in the southeast Quarter of Queensland.

So we have a Broad low-intensity to severe heatwave conditions across northern Australia and eastern Queensland, and into northeast NSW. 

Saturday the dry airmass will remain in place across much of Queensland, though some moisture will spread westwards across the north of the state bringing the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Over the south, the trough will remain just inland from the Wide Bay coast, and another trough will move northwards into far southeastern Queensland, and these features may lead to isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in this area as well. Showers and thunderstorms are also likely to continue over western Cape York Peninsula. Daytime temperatures are likely to be higher than average across much of the state, with hot conditions extending in a band from the northwest to the southeast. Severe fire dangers are likely to continue in southeast Queensland.

Low-intensity to severe heatwave conditions for most areas of Queensland. 

Sunday the dry airmass will remain in place across the southwest of the state, with very warm and relatively moist air in place to the northeast of a surface trough extending from the Gulf Country to the far southeast. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within this moister air mass. Daytime temperatures are likely to be higher than average across much of the state, however temperatures will moderate slightly along the east coast.

We are still seeing low-intensity to severe heatwave conditions continuing for Queensland, and the northern and eastern parts of  New South Wales. 

 

Cheers,